Icing the Kicker in NCAA Football 2005-18

In gridiron football, the icing the kicker phenomenon is thought to occur when the defending team calls a TO just before the ball is snapped on a FG attempt (FGA) that could tie, win, or otherwise sway the outcome of the game in favor of the kicking team. The motivation for calling the TO is that it could somehow disturb, or ‘ice’ the kicker in a way that he will be more likely to miss the FGA. 

Other authors have endeavored to examine icing the kicker. Some have reported that, in the NFL, calling a TO before a FG does not reduce the likelihood of making a FGA, whether controlling for FGA length or not. Other studies suggest suggests there is indeed an effect of reducing likelihood on longer NFL FGAs that is absent on shorter FGAs, when controlling for FGA length and other factors. At the collegiate level, it appears that icing the kicker may be effective on longer FGs; specifically, greater than 45 yards.  However, this study had a small sample of iced kicks.

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics for NCAA FGAs 2005-18

				This Many Attempted Fields Goals were
Quarter	FG%	uFG%	Attempted	Made	Blocked	Home Attempts	Last 2min Attempts	≤15s after TO Attempts
1st	0.727	0.753	7051	5123	248	3559	1129	468
2nd	0.702	0.732	11473	8049	475	5957	4413	3264
3rd	0.740	0.766	6629	4906	224	3417	1033	425
4th & OT	0.715	0.747	7176	5129	308	3764	1566	1754
TOTAL	0.718	0.747	32329	23207	1255	16697	8141	5911

We here at POTH sought to reexamine icing the kicker at the collegiate level using a much larger data set. This includes 32,329 FGAs from NCAA Division I FBS vs FBS and FBS vs FCS games from 2005 through mid-November 2018. Table 1 has the breakdowns of some data we’ll refer to throughout. The last 2 minutes refers to FGAs during the last two minutes of quarters 1 through 4 and any FGA occurring in OT. 

Let us start with blocked FGAs, though. Notably, as seen in Table 1, blocked FGAs were more likely to occur in the 2nd quarter and 4th quarter and OT (χ² = 12.3, p = 0.007)—the situations in games most relevant to icing the kicker. Longer FGAs were more likely to be blocked regardless of the quarter (p < 0.001). FGAs were also more likely to be blocked in the last 2 minutes of quarters and OT, but especially in the last 2 minutes of the 4th quarter and OT (p = 0.06). For these reasons, we shall include in our analyses only unblocked FGAs. This leaves 31,074 FGAs for analysis.

Table 2. Proportional Statistics for NCAA FGAs 2005-18

		Proportion of Field Goals Made
Quarter	% Blocked	Home Team	Away Tem	Last 2min	Before Last 2m	≤15s after TO	No TO Before
1st	0.035	0.743	0.710	0.731	0.751	0.726	0.752
2nd	0.041	0.714	0.688	0.677	0.746	0.680	0.742
3rd	0.034	0.755	0.724	0.743	0.765	0.701	0.769
4th & OT	0.043	0.728	0.700	0.676	0.754	0.694	0.749
OVERALL	0.039	0.757	0.736	0.725	0.754	0.721	0.752

About 74.6% of (unblocked) FGAs are made. Figure 1 shows that FG% declines as the length of the FGA increases. There is some variation in FG% between quarters, with 3rd-quarter FGAs being most successful. Only differences between the 3rd and 2nd (p = 0.03) and the 4th and 3rd (p = 0.03) are significant when we account for length of the FGA, which is, by far, the most significant predictor of FG success. Longer FGAs are less successful at all points in the game. 

Figure 1. Likelihood of Making a FGA, by Length (using binomial smooth)

FGAs by the home team (75.6%) are about 2.8% more likely to be made than FGAs by the road team (73.5%) (χ² = 17.9, p < 0.001). When controlling for FGA length and quarter, home FGAs are 6.6% more likely to be made (p < 0.001). However, this advantage of home FG% is relatively constant at all FGA lengths. That is, home-team FG kickers tend to be slightly more successful than road-team kickers on FGAs of any length, and at any point in the game. 

What about the FG% in the last 2 minutes of quarters, when icing the kicker usually occurs? Table 1 shows that it clearly drops in the 4th quarter and OT (in the 2nd too). This drop in FG% in the last two minutes is, however, diminished when controlling for FGA length, quarter, and home/away (p = 0.52). It should be noted that FGAs in the last 2 minutes of the 2nd and 4th quarters are 1-2 yards longer than FGAs at other times in the game (ps < 0.002). 

How do the stakes of the game effect FG%? The opportunity to tie the game seems to have a general effect of increasing the likelihood of making a FG (p = 0.05). Otherwise, though, there is no effect of stakes on FG% when controlling for length, quarter, home/away, and being in the last 2 minutes or not. 

FGAs 15 seconds or less after a TO are made 72.1% of the time whereas other FGAs are made 75.2% of the time (χ² = 24, p < 0.001). Now, this is just if any TO is called; that is, by the offense, the defense, or some other TO that was not attributed to either team in the data. Really, we have a variable that indicates whether the TO was called by the offense, the defense, was unattributed, or if no TO was called. If we were to continue the analysis as we have been doing it, we would examine a four-way interaction between quarter, last 2 minutes or not, stakes, and who called the TO before or not. Four-way interactions are messy. And three of those variables have four levels. We should do something else.

Figure 2a. FG% by TO Type

Figure 2b. FGA Length by TO Type

Let us narrow our focus to FGAs in the last 2 minutes of the 4th quarter and OT where the offense can either tie the game or take the lead with a FG, which leaves 2,173 FGAs for analysis. In the two figures we see that iced FGAs (i.e., those after a defense TO) [a] are the least successful, at ~70%, but [b] are also, on average, the longest FGAs in this game situation. Thus, when we model the likelihood of making a FG, while accounting for length and home/away, there is no effect of icing the kicker (p = 0.24). Like, icing the kicker has no statistically differentiable effect of decreasing the likelihood of making longer FGAs (p = 0.25). However, the estimated marginal probabilities in the figure below suggest that the likelihood of iced FGAs declines slightly more at longer distances, although, again, this is not statistically significant. 

Figure 3. Estimated probabilities of FG% by length and who called TO in last 2 minutes of 4th & OT

Whereas we have used the raw yardage value for FGA length, the one previous study of icing the kicker in NCAA football split length into ‘bins’: distances of 18-25 yards, 26-35 yards, 36-45 yards, and >45 yards. The author of the previous study used only data from 2017-18 and found that of 38 iced FGAs in the last 2 minutes of the 4th quarter and OT, only 26% were made. If I examine only data from 2017-18, I find these same numbers (38 iced FGAs, 10 made, 28 missed). Below, using all data, I went ahead and show the FG% for each of these length-bins by who called the TO, for the sake of comparison across studies. The quantities of FGAs are shown parenthetically. Longer iced FGAs appear to be made lower rates.

Figure 4. Proportion of FGAs Made by TO Type by Yardage Bins used in Dalen (2018)

Summarily, the present report examined icing the kicker in NCAA football. This study used a sizable data set which would enhance the generalizability of the findings. However, the primary analysis indicated there was no effect of icing the kicker. Additional examination suggested that there might be an effect of icing the kicker at FGAs longer than 45 but such a conclusion is limited by there being fewer FGAs attempted from these lengths (i.e., smaller sample) and the variability of success at increasing lengths. Likewise, other potentially influential factors such as meteorological conditions, team FG kicking/defensing quality, and on-field activity were not accounted for in the analysis. NCAA football coaches should continue utilizing icing the kicker so they may endure the rancor of punditry, boosters, delusional fans, etc., when their teams lose games on last-second field goals.